Win probabilityLive
0.0%
Pre-tournament10.6%↓6.2%
19.028%
Top 5
30.856%
Top 10
58.55%
Top 20
78.836%
Make Cut
Skill profile vs course demands
Player
Course demands
Key probabilitiesLive
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Course history
0
Avg Finish
0
Starts
-
Prediction evolutionLive
J.J. Spaun
2.9%→9.9%
↑7.0%
Ludvig Aberg
10.6%→4.4%
↓6.2%
Tom Kim
1.0%→4.9%
↑3.9%
Ryo Hisatsune
2.1%→5.2%
↑3.1%
Andrew Putnam
0.6%→3.5%
↑2.9%
Key Insights
The field's best approach player at +0.88 SG:APP.
Ranked 1st in course fit — skill profile closely matches what this layout demands.
Top 2 in the field for Off the Tee (+0.71).
Ranked 1st in the field for SG:APP — elite company.
A debutant here. No past form at this course to reference.
Compound
In-tournament slide: was modelled at 10.6% pre-tournament, now 4.4% live. The early returns haven't matched expectations.
Model Top 3
Ludvig Aberg
Rank #5#1
Win probability
0.0%
SG Total
+2.08
Recent form
T5
T3
T20
T37
Key edge: +0.88 Approach
Russell Henley
Rank #10#2
Win probability
0.0%
SG Total
+1.36
Recent form
T13
T6
T19
Key edge: +0.52 Approach
Justin Thomas
Rank #35#3
Win probability
0.0%
SG Total
+1.23
Recent form
T30
T8
Key edge: +0.44 Approach
Strokes Gained BreakdownSG Total: +2.08
Off the Tee+0.71
Tour rank: Top 15
Approach+0.88
Tour rank: Top 15
Around Green+0.22
Tour rank: Top 80
Putting+0.28
Tour rank: Top 80
Ludvig Aberg — VolatilityModerate
Std Dev
13.7
Top 10
50%
MC Rate
0%
Consistency
75%
Approach Skill Profile
Loading approach data…
Full Field Predictions
#PlayerWinTop 5Top 10Top 20Cut